1. Context
The geographical, socio-economic situation and an economy sensitive to climate change make Mali one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse effects of this change. Three quarters of the country is in the arid Saharan and semi-arid Sahelian zone. For more than three (3) decades, Mali has been significantly affected by climatic phenomena (droughts and floods), which continuously disrupt agro-sylvo-pastoral production. Indeed, the majority of the population depends heavily on the exploitation of natural resources, in particular through agro-sylvo-pastoral activities dependent on rainfall, the fluctuations of which are difficult to predict. The random nature of rainfall manifests itself in the decreasing trends and variability of rainfall over space. These climatic problems also generate displacement of populations, which directly impact agro-sylvo-pastoral production and the livelihoods of the vulnerable populations.
At the national level, the food strategies index remained stable in September 2018 with an average score of 2.04 points against 1.96 in September 2017 (ENSAN, 2018). Resilience to food insecurity in Mali depends on the following strategies: support from relatives and friends, use of savings, sale of livestock, possessions and other household assets. Apart from food insecurity problems, we also have an increase in flooding as well as an increase in evaporation and drying out of wetlands and other water points due to high temperatures and high winds. Soil degradation and water / wind erosion are permanent, and arable land is gradually shrinking due to deforestation and desertification as well.
Kayes Region is located in the western part of Mali and covers an area of approximately 120,760 km2, or 9.7% of the national territory. Administratively, Kayes has seven circles (Bafoulabé, Diéma, Kayes, Kénièba, Kita, Nioro du Sahel, and Yélimané), with 129 municipalities including 12 urban ones. Kayes experiences very high temperatures exceeding 45 ° C from March to May, making it the hottest city in Africa. According to FEWSNET projections, in 2060 there will be an increase in temperature from 1.2 ° Celsius to 3.6 ° Celsius with larger increases in the southwest (Kayes) and the regions of Mopti and Gao. The effects of climate variability and change, such as the distribution of rainfall in time and space, rising temperatures, long periods of drought, and the succession of floods to droughts, have made agricultural activities and breeding more and more difficult. In the long run, climate change will be a limiting factor for the development of the Kayes region, which is very sensitive to changes in rainfall, where 68.2% of households derive their income from agriculture, livestock, and forests, and are therefore the most vulnerable to climate change (USAID report, food security in Mali, 2019).
his climatic variability constitutes a disaster risk factor affecting not only the health of populations with water-related diseases such as malaria, cholera, pneumonia, etc. but also in terms of the collapse of houses following the floods on the most vulnerable groups of women, children and the disabled. It also affects the livelihoods of the population in terms of flooding of farm fields, destruction of seeds, loss of livestock, lack of pasture, decrease in agricultural yield, destruction of the environment with as a corollary the food insecurity, malnutrition, decline or loss of income, population movements and therefore the increase in poverty. In addition, the low level of knowledge of the population on strategies to prevent and adapt to the effects of climate change increases their vulnerability. Considering the magnitude and possible impacts of climate change in Mali, the Malian Red Cross in partnership with the Netherlands Red Cross (NLRC) have initiated this project “Innovative and climate-smart livelihoods for sustainable resilience in the Kayes region in Mali”.
2. Programme / project description
The project (Innovative and climate-smart livelihoods for sustainable resilience in the Kayes region in Mali) aims to strengthen the resilience of communities in the face of climate change in the most vulnerable of Kayes Cercle and boarding areas from the Senegal River to Mali through sustainable livelihoods adapted to climate change. This project is implemented by Malian Red Cross in collaboration with The Netherlands Red Cross and financed by The Red Cross PRINCESS MARGUERIT FUND in Kéméné Tambo, Tafacirga and Sony municipalities of Kayes cercle.
The project objectives are planned to be achieved through the integration of climate change adaptation and resilience activities into the economic, social and cultural development plans (PDSEC) of each commune. All the activities are developed in close collaboration with communities, partners and authorities in order to find inclusive solutions to improve the resilience of the these municipalities. It was built on the efforts of several existing natural resource management initiatives, while focusing more closely on the impact of climate change on natural resource degradation and food insecurity, as well as on the current communities capacities to face climate change. The results of this project will help lay the foundations for the resilience of target communities by increasing their knowledge of the adverse effects of climate change and their adaptation to climate change while promoting community organization around strengthening livelihoods. Three results are targeted by this project:
1- Community-based Early Action Early Warning System,
2- Climate Smart and Sustainable Livelihoods strategies practiced by communities and
3- Governance and planning – gender and climate proof; details are presented in the project proposal.
3. Purpose and intended use
The purpose of this final evaluation is to evaluate to what extent the Climate Smart Livelihoods in Kayes, Mali, has achieved the intended results.
Assess the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency and synergies of the activities, systems, management, and coordination of the Climate Smart Livelihoods programme in Kayes, Mali.
Identify lessons learned and providing concrete recommendations to NLRC HQ and to the Mali Red Cross Society for future Climate Smart Livelihoods programming in similar contexts.
4. Scope
Geographical: The evaluation will include data collection in Kayes, Mali in the communes of Kéméné, Tambo, Tafacirga and Sony.
Timeframe: It includes the entire 24 months project covering July 2019 until June 2021.
Level: the assessment will focus on the impact and outcome level result areas. **
Respondents: The evaluation will assess the views and experience of the strengths and challenges of the program of:
a. The Malian Red Cross HQ (Head of operations department, Programmes Coordinator, SG, finances & HR at Bamako),
b. The beneficiaries/households receiving support.
c. The implementing branches of Kayes, plus the government technical services with who they collaborated for the implementation of the program.
d. The grant holder (NLRC HQ)
5. Roles and responsibilities **
The assessment will be carried out by an external local evaluator with a team of enumerators in Mali, with close support from PMEAL at NLRC HQ.
6. Methodology
The impact and outcome level results, as provided in the table below, will be under review by using a Household Survey for which at impact level the newly developed IFRC Resilience Measurement Radar will need to be used.
In the household survey, in addition to the questions included in the Resilience Measurement Radar, the evaluator will need to ensure to include questions that unpack cause-effect linkages and questions that look at the unexpected and unintended results of the project in addition to the evidence to the degree to which planned indicators were achieved.
A mixed method approach, using both qualitative and quantitative data collection tools, should be used.
Result level
Indicator
Method of verification
Impact
60% of the populations of Kamene Tambo, Tafacirga and Sony of the Kayes Circle have strengthened their resilience in the face of climate change by 2022
HH survey by means of the Resilience Radar
Mini case studies
Impact
40% of households whose production manages to cover their food needs of the year
HH survey by means of the Resilience Radar
Mini case studies
Impact
50% of households that do not resort to negative livelihood adjustment strategies and food insecurity
HH survey by means of the Resilience Radar
Mini case studies
Outcome
85% of households with access to hydrometeorological and epidemiological information
HH survey
Mini case studies
Outcome
60% of households that have taken individual or community action on the basis of hydro-meteorological and health information
HH survey – self assessment and peer assessment
Mini case studies
Outcome
60 households using innovative climate-friendly livelihood techniques
HH survey – self assessment and peer assessment
Mini case studies
Observation
Outcome
28% of households diversifying their sources of income taking environmental protection into account.
HH survey
Mini case studies
Observation
7. Deliverables
Inception report: The inception report should include the proposed methodologies, a data collection and reporting plan with identified deliverables, draft data collection tools such as interview guides, questionnaire, sampling method, a timeframe with firm dates for deliverables and travel (if applicable) and logistical arrangements for the evaluation.
Draft report: The consultant will produce a draft report (identifying key findings based on facts, conclusions, recommendations and lessons for the current and future operations) which will be reviewed by the NLRC team in Mali and at HQ. The consultant will be given the feedback after 10 working days to incorporate into the final report.
Final report: A Final report highlighting key findings, conclusions, lessons learned and recommendations will be submitted within 10 days of receiving the feedback from the draft report. Final evaluation report of no more than 10 pages (excluding executive summary and annexes such as copy of the ToR, cited resources, a list of those interviewed and any other relevant materials).
Lessons learnt presentation and one-pager: A final meeting/workshop will be held to share the key findings and recommendations. The key lessons and recommendations will be presented in a one-pager to share.
How to apply:
The review is expected to be implemented between early-July and mid-August 2021.
Interested candidates/teams should submit their expression of interest to sgehrlein@redcross.nl by June 4th 2021.
The application should include:
Cover letter: clearly summarizing the experience of the consultant team leader as it pertains to this assignment, daily rate and contact details for three professional referees.
Curricula Vitae: Team leader (and members, if applying as a team)
Narrative and Methodology proposal
Financial proposal (Budget)
One sample of previous written work similar to that described in this Term of Reference (previous evaluations and reviews completed).
Application materials are non-returnable,